Wanna bet your life on a model?

maxresdefaultNext time we go through one of these pandemic panics, we need to ask two questions; “Sez who?” and “How come it is?”

We closed down entire countries based on seriously flawed models, most notoriously that of British scientist Neil Ferguson of Imperial College.

The model was severely flawed. The model’s software was 13 years old, with a program that predicted at random. Adding on to the fact is that new records are coming out of this particular scientist of a history of failed predictions.

“In 2001 the Imperial College team’s modelling led to the culling of 6 million livestock and was criticised by epidemiological experts as severely flawed. In various years in the early 2000s Ferguson predicted up to 136,000 deaths from mad cow disease, 200 million from bird flu and 65,000 from swine flu. The final death toll in each case was in the hundreds,” note biologist Matt Ridley and Member of Parliament David Davis. “In this case, when a Swedish team applied the modified model that Imperial put into the public domain to Sweden’s strategy, it predicted 40,000 deaths by May 1 – 15 times too high.”

The UK shut down because of Ferguson’s model, yet Ferguson and Imperial College refused all requests to examine taxpayer-funded code that supported one of the most significant peacetime decisions.

Next time, when you hear a prediction, decide to wait until all the evidence is in. Ferguson would appear at first glance to be reputable, so don’t trust any old “expert.” Always ask: Who are you? How do you know? Keep questioning. And if the experts and government officials tell you to do something, always ask, “Why?” Keep asking “Why?.”

~ Nimrod

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